Armed conflicts and prevailing rank-size patterns in 28 African states

Abstract

Refugees fleeing conflict and oppression can affect the population size of cities within a country and neighboring countries. This paper examines how the rank-size rule of cities has changed in 28 countries located in volatile regions of Africa over the past four decades. We estimate two equation models explaining the relationship between spatial/temporal variation in cities and noneconomic factors. Although economic factors remain the principal determinants of urban growth, the prevailing rank-size patterns indicate that noneconomic factors such as armed conflicts are behind the development of most of these cities, particularly those near or bordering conflict areas.