Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

Smartson P Nyoni Smartson P Nyoni,Thabani Nyoni Thabani Nyoni

doi:10.47494/mesb.2020.4.43

Smartson P Nyoni Smartson P Nyoni, Thabani Nyoni Thabani Nyoni

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.4.43

Copy DOI

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%.

Highlights

The prevalence of anemia is a severe public health problem for children in Sierra Leone (Wirth et al, 2017)
Due to poor nutritional status (Wirth et al, 2017), necessitated by rampant poverty (UNDP, 2015), anemia prevalence is very high among Sierra Leonean children under five years of age (Stevens et al, 2013)
Motivated by the scale of the problem of anemia in Sierra Leone, this study will forecast the prevalence of anemia in children under the age of 5 over the period 2017 – 2025

Summary

Introduction

The prevalence of anemia is a severe public health problem for children in Sierra Leone (Wirth et al, 2017). Due to poor nutritional status (Wirth et al, 2017), necessitated by rampant poverty (UNDP, 2015), anemia prevalence is very high among Sierra Leonean children under five years of age (Stevens et al, 2013). Motivated by the scale of the problem of anemia in Sierra Leone, this study will forecast the prevalence of anemia in children under the age of 5 over the period 2017 – 2025. 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW Wirth et al (2017) analyzed the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone based on a cross-sectional survey.

Results

Conclusion