Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

Smartson P Nyoni Smartson P Nyoni

doi:10.47494/mesb.2020.5.57

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model.

Highlights

Anemia is a widespread public health problem associated with an increased risk of morbidity and mortality, especially in young children (WHO, 2002)
Poverty and malnutrition are the main reasons for the high prevalence of anemia in Myanmar
The findings of this study are envisioned to be very useful for designing public nutrition and other health programs in the country, in addition to serving as a basic instrument for decision makers to implement effective public health interventions to fight against anemia in Myanmar. 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW In a local study, Zhao et al (2015) conducted a research to determine the prevalence of anemia in preschool children as well as its risk factors

Summary

Introduction

Anemia is a widespread public health problem associated with an increased risk of morbidity and mortality, especially in young children (WHO, 2002). Anemia is a significant public health challenge in Myanmar (Win & Ko, 2018). The prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar is amongst the highest in the world (Zhao et al, 2015). The prevalence of anemia in some regions of Myanmar is reported to be unacceptably high, at around 70% (Kemmer et al, 2003; Zhao et al, 2012).

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Conclusion