ARFIMA Modelling for Tectonic Earthquakes in The Maluku Region

Abstract

Maluku Province is one of the regions in Indonesia with a very active and very prone earthquake intensity because it is a meeting place for 3 (three) plates, namely the Eurasian, Pacific and Australian plates. In the last 100 years, the history of tectonic earthquakes with tsunamis that occurred in Indonesia was 25-30% occurring in the Maluku Sea and Banda Sea. Based on this fact, this study aims to analyze the incidence of tectonic earthquakes that occurred in the Maluku region and its surroundings using the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Averages (ARFIMA) model which has the ability to explain long-term time series data (long memory). The results of the research data analysis show that the best model for predicting the number of tectonic earthquakes that occur in Maluku and its surroundings is ARFIMA (0; 0.712; 1) with an MSE value of 0.1156. Meanwhile, the best model for predicting the average magnitude of the number of tectonic earthquakes that occurred in Maluku and its surroundings is ARFIMA (0; -3,224 x 10-9; 1) with an MSE value of 0.01237. Based on the two best models, the prediction results obtained from the number of tectonic earthquakes and the average magnitude of the number of tectonic earthquakes that occurred in Maluku and its surroundings for the next three periods, namely the first period there were 31 tectonic earthquakes with an average magnitude of 4.38481 SR. the second period there were 32 tectonic earthquakes with an average magnitude of 4.38407, and the third period there were 32 tectonic earthquakes with an average magnitude of 4.38333.