Abstract

This paper reexamines whether the real exchange rate follows a random walk. We test the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of stationarity and also the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. The test proposed by Kwiatkowski. Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS, 1992) is modified and applied to the monthly and annual data. While our monthly series suggest somewhat mixed results, the results of annual data favor the stationarity hypothesis in our both tests. We conclude that the real exchange rate may have a long mean-reversion component that the conventional unit root tests are not powerful enough to detect in a short span sample. [F31]

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