Abstract
Droughts and water scarcity events are predicted to be more frequent and intense in the future, especially in Mediterranean countries. However, are the most recent drought management plans (DMPs) built on the latest technical, engineering, and scientific knowledge, as well as the learning experiences from managing historical droughts? The most significant challenge that surfaces, when a new drought event strikes, is the difficulty in predicting its duration (which can vary from months to years), the severity (or degree of affection to water resources), and the potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Hence, there is an importance of integrating reliable forecasting and modeling tools in the development of modern DMPs, so the potential risk can be assessed under a range of possible drought scenarios. This will ensure that the proposed measures and actions of the DMP are sufficiently robust and proportionate to the drought and water scarcity situation. This paper provides a critical assessment of the core technical concepts and principles to be taken into consideration when developing the methodological and operational framework of a DMP. The case of study chosen is the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain, which presents one of the most complex and paradigmatic cases in this regard. This region suffers recurrent episodes of drought and water scarcity, together with fierce competition among water users. Recently, a new strategic DMP has been approved and adopted in December 2018. The implications of applying the DMP in practice during the drought have been also evaluated. This study draws important lessons learned that could be applied in other areas suffering from water scarcity and droughts.
Highlights
Global warming and its consequent extreme climate-related events affect, to a greater or lesser extent, the entire planet
The Guadalquivir is the main river in southern Spain (Figure 1) that periodically suffers the consequences of drought events and water scarcity episodes
A diagnosis system, including the definition of territorial units and environmental characterization; the definition of a common global indicator and thresholds system; actions and measures to be taken in each phase; and organizational framework: monitoring and follow-up system to deal with drought and subsequent revision and updating of the existing drought management plans (DMPs)
Summary
Global warming and its consequent extreme climate-related events affect, to a greater or lesser extent, the entire planet. There is an importance of integrating reliable forecasting and modeling tools in the development of modern drought management plans (DMPs), so the potential risk can be assessed under a range of possible drought scenarios This will ensure that the proposed measures and actions of the DMP are sufficiently robust and proportionate to the real drought and water scarcity situation. In order to be effective tools and provide consistent support to water decision-makers, DMPs should be based on technical evidence, the latest engineering and science knowledge combined with learning experiences from historical droughts [6] Despite their importance, the Water Framework Directive (WFD, Directive 2000/60/EC, [7]) does not explicitly require the elaboration of DMPs by member estates. Critical Review of the Key Aspects of the 2018 Guadalquivir River Basin Drought
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