Are solar cycles predictable?

Abstract

AbstractVarious methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels – with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided rather high correlations with the strength of the following cycles. Recently, data assimilation with an advection‐dominated (flux‐transport) dynamo model has been proposed as a predictive tool, yielding remarkably high correlation coefficients. After discussing the potential implications of these results and the criticism that has been raised, we study the possible physical origin(s) of the predictive skill provided by precursor and other methods. It is found that the combination of the overlap of solar cycles and their amplitude‐dependent rise time (Waldmeier's rule) introduces correlations in the sunspot number (or area) record, which account for the predictive skill of many precursor methods. This explanation requires no direct physical relation between the precursor quantity and the dynamo mechanism (in the sense of the Babcock‐Leighton scheme or otherwise). (© 2007 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)