Are habitats of Austrian agricultural landscapes sensitive to climate change?

Abstract

Climate change amongst others is considered as a major threat to biodiversity. The aim of the present study was to assess the potential impact and regional variation of modelled climate change on selected Austrian habitats and agricultural landscapes for 20 landscape samples in the region of Upper-Austria. In order to avoid biases caused by the lack of data of species and their ecological requirements, we used a concept that addresses higher aggregated forms of biodiversity, the broader habitats. We defined their ecological envelope by applying Ellenberg's temperature and water availability values based on vegetation relevés and related these with the output of a regional climate model for the time periods 1981–1990 and 2041–2050. Further we defined a sensitivity index for assessing possible responses of broader habitats to future climatic conditions. Regression analysis revealed quite strong relationships for temperature values ( R 2 = 0.72, p-value < 0.01) but not for water availability. Differences in R 2 were given regarding the individual broader habitats. Water availability had higher sensitivity indices than temperature. Forests, fallow land, field margins and aquatic habitats had the best regression models, the highest sensitivity and also showed rather high naturalness values. It was concluded that more natural habitats will suffer more because of climate change. Species loss and turnover can only be mitigated by improving migration possibilities. Consequences for nature conservation planning are discussed and need to be further explored.