Are Canadian Provincial Tax Systems Becoming More Regressive? If So, in What Respects and Why?

Abstract

There is an extensive literature on the evolution of tax progressivity and the forces shaping it in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations, but not in Canada. This article addresses these topics for the provinces since 1980. Provincial taxes have become more regressive, but unevenly across tax types and over time. Moreover, among the many commonly cited influences on tax incidence, only interprovincial trade has a strong and broad negative association with tax progressivity. Domestic trade's impact also varies considerably over time and often is the inverse of that discussed in the literature, with receding trade levels associated with rising progressivity. Many domestic influences on incidence are stronger than most transboundary ones.