Arctic sea ice – a driver of the winter NAO?

Abstract

The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) explains a large amount of weather variability over northwest Europe, including extreme weather events such as the very cold winter of 2009/2010 and the exceptionally wet winter of 2013/2014 in the UK. Accurate prediction of the NAO several months in advance allows populations based in regions prone to such extreme and potentially prolonged weather events to be better prepared and more resilient. Recent advances in the skill in forecasting the winter NAO have been made for both dynamical and statistical models, in which Arctic sea ice is demonstrated to be a strong predictor. This review article discusses research on the link between autumnal Arctic sea ice and the winter NAO, how future research could better establish whether this connection is physical, and whether sea ice in particular is a physical driver of NAO variability on the timescales under consideration.