Abstract
Many risky decisions have long time horizons. Consider investing in a business venture that will not pay off for at least half a decade—major construction projects, a new line of product introductions, software upgrades for widely used products, and the list goes on. All of these risky decisions lend themselves to a combination of spread sheets and human assessment. Much of the investing by angel investors and venture capitalist (VCs) fall into this category, and so does plenty of the business development by established technology firms. How do commercial actors make decisions in such risky settings? A new branch of behavioral economics proposes that decision makers use archetypes. An archetype is a recurrent symbol or motif about a type of person or team and associated behavior. An archetype reappears as a (similar) story in a wide set of media, and contains many of the same narrative elements.
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