Abstract
AbstractBased on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and interplate seismic zoning principle proposed by the authors of this paper, the Islamabad–Kathmandu seismic zone is defined. Through seismogenic period definition and main shock event recognition, the seismogenic process of major/great earthquakes in this seismic zone is analyzed and the future trend of earthquake occurrence is predicted. The results show that the Islamabad–Kathmandu seismic zone is an Mw8.3∼8.6 earthquake hazard zone, and has undergone at least three complete seismogenic periods; the Nepal Mw7.8 earthquake on April 25, 2015 was a representative major earthquake event in the current seismogenic period when the damage of the third locked patch was accumulated to the peak strength point; After the Mw7.3 earthquake in Nepal on May 12, 2015, this seismic zone is already in another critical state of the current seismogenic period, and an Mw8.0∼8.2 earthquake would occur in short‐middle term.
Published Version
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