Approaches to Modelling Marketing Strategies in E-Commerce

Abstract

Introduction. Increasing the efficiency of business activities requires developing a marketing strategy using e-commerce to attract a wide range of customers and maximise the company's income. The key marketing metric for most companies is the customer lifetime value indicator, which is why studying approaches to forecasting this indicator in e-commerce requires special attention, considering the changing business operation environment. Aim and tasks. The study aims to develop approaches to modelling the marketing strategy of e-commerce enterprises. The tasks are a comparative characterisation of modern marketing planning tools and an empirical analysis of the possibilities of using the BG/NBD model for marketing planning in e-commerce companies, considering the need to implement scenario marketing planning in unstable conditions. Results. A comparison of the characteristics of the main marketing planning tools was conducted according to features such as content and focus, functional purpose, and planning period, which allows more purposeful use of these tools to solve specific tasks. In order to automatically obtain the required data format for modelling, a Visual Basic program was developed, a forecast of customer behaviour was built, and an indicator of customer transactions was determined for further calculation of customer lifetime value (CLV). During the simulation, four parameters of the BG/NBD model were evaluated, and the maximum value of the logarithmic likelihood function equal to 14460.54 was obtained. The expected number of transactions (forecast time = 26 weeks) was determined for each client from the database. After calculations the information was received, the selected client will make 2.35 transactions during the forecast period of 55-80 weeks. The recommended algorithm for using the BG/NBD model as part of a scenario approach for forecasting the cost of the customer's life cycle allows for more flexible forecasting of digital business revenues and building an optimal marketing strategy. Conclusions. An empirical study of the possibilities of using the BG/NBD model for marketing planning in e-commerce companies showed that, for the simulation of indicators that affect a company's marketing strategy, it is crucial at the initial stage to convert the database of customer purchases into the input format required for modelling. Using a scenario approach allows e-commerce enterprises to carry out variable marketing planning and reduce risks under growing uncertainty. A well-designed marketing strategy that can be adapted to different business development scenarios enables an e-commerce company to increase its sales.