Approach for a Comprehensive Evaluation of Manufacturing Innovation Projects in the Early Phase of the Innovation Process

Abstract

Driving innovation has become necessary for securing manufacturing companies' competitive capabilities in the context of digitalization, human centricity, sustainability, and resilience (Industry 5.0). However, due to its costs and uncertainties, the innovation process carries a high economic risk. Decisions of this magnitude can only be legitimized by a well-founded and thus often costly project evaluation. This paper aims to present a comprehensive evaluation approach to support companies in evaluating and classifying manufacturing innovation projects in the early phase of the innovation process. Based on a comprehensive literature analysis and expert interviews, a concept for an evaluation technique combining four dimensions has been elaborated. The first dimension is the potential analysis. It is evaluated using a type-1 Mamdani Fuzzy expert system, analyzing potentials to compute the effect of innovation on competitive strategic goals in manufacturing. Second, the initial efforts are identified by providing a structured list of possible expenses. The third dimension is an innovation project's overall risk to a company. It is calculated using an adapted Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. The failure modes are identified with the help of a comprehensive overview of potential risks that need to be evaluated regarding their significance, probability of occurrence, and reaction possibility. The fourth dimension helps the user to classify the selected innovation projects as incremental or radical for the company. The results of the four evaluation modules are summarized and visualized for their use in the decision-making process. Concluding, the approach has been validated by an initial use-case application to an industrial decision problem and verified by evaluating the approach's performance regarding the fundamental requirements for decision support systems.