Abstract
This work evaluates the accuracy of seasonal rainfall prediction by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency by comparing it with the actual amount of rainfall received. It also measures the perception of the farmers regarding such prediction in the case of Kano State using data collected for the years 2009-2015. A total of eighty structured questionnaires were administered to the respondents in selected areas including Mariri, Hotoro, Zaria road and Gwarzo using purposive and snowball sampling techniques. When comparison between the predicted and the observed amount of rainfall received in the study area was made, the outcome showed a high level of variation throughout the years under study. The results further revealed that the majority of the respondents were not aware of convectional rainfall levels or assumed that the modern prediction method is unreliable. The current study recommends massive sensitization of farmers about the modern rainfall prediction methods considering the erratic nature of the weather and the changing climate, particularly in this era of global climate change.
Highlights
Despite the recent developments in weather forecasting technology, reliable information about meteorological data still requires accuracy in the developing countries
Our findings from this work show the evaluation of rainfall characteristics as indexes where farmers responded more to traditional prediction and utilization than to modern methods in the choice. They are: the onset, cessation, and length of rain as well as the total amount of annual rainfall is in the study area, that is, Kano State LGAs before they embark on annual farming
Data of mean annual rainfall in Kano state was displayed in figures 5-12 for vivid clarification, while comparison between predicted and actual values of rainfall characteristic in Kano areas was shown as well as the onset and cessation for the year 2009-2015 was portrayed in the graphs
Summary
Despite the recent developments in weather forecasting technology, reliable information about meteorological data still requires accuracy in the developing countries. The assessment of seasonal rainfall system will provide tremendous assistance to the farmers, but it would in no small measure enhance sustainable agriculture and resource management in the country (Ayoade, 1993). Accurate and reliable information about rainfall is very essential for the farmers. Owen and Ward (1989) envisage that onset and cessation dates of the rainy season are essential to the success of farming activities in Nigeria. Multi-year and decadal predictions of weather influence a farmer’s investment decisions during growing seasons. Knowledge of local weather and climate no doubt improve the harvest, adequate planning subsequently influences the individual farmer yields. Determining the onset, cessation, time of growth, and information of the dry spell patterns within rain-season are useful for land preparation and planting activities Iloeje (1979)
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