Appraisal of Seasonal Rainfall Prediction and Utilization: A Case Study of Kano State, Nigeria

Abstract

This work evaluates the accuracy of seasonal rainfall prediction by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency by comparing it with the actual amount of rainfall received. It also measures the perception of the farmers regarding such prediction in the case of Kano State using data collected for the years 2009-2015. A total of eighty structured questionnaires were administered to the respondents in selected areas including Mariri, Hotoro, Zaria road and Gwarzo using purposive and snowball sampling techniques. When comparison between the predicted and the observed amount of rainfall received in the study area was made, the outcome showed a high level of variation throughout the years under study. The results further revealed that the majority of the respondents were not aware of convectional rainfall levels or assumed that the modern prediction method is unreliable. The current study recommends massive sensitization of farmers about the modern rainfall prediction methods considering the erratic nature of the weather and the changing climate, particularly in this era of global climate change.