Applying D numbers in risk assessment process: General approach

Abstract

Risk assessment is performed in different conditions and for different purposes and very often it is followed by various types of uncertainty. Sometimes uncertainty is smaller, but usually during risk assessment a large number of factors appears with incomplete information to a greater or lesser extent. Risk assessment under conditions of uncertainty is less complex with the application of various mathematical fields dealing well with uncertainty. This paper presents one approach in the application of D numbers in the process of risk assessment, respectively, risk quantification. As is known, D numbers treat uncertainty very well, so this feature of them is also used in risk quantification. In this paper, first of all are presented basic terms related to the concept of risk, as well as of D numbers. The focus of the paper is on the examples in which risk assessment is presented using D numbers. In addition to the level of risk that is defined through the application of D numbers and standard tables for risk assessment, the paper also defines the level of optimistic or pessimistic risk. Thus, in addition to the risk value, the risk interval can also be obtained, which in conditions of uncertainty provides a much more realistic picture of the problem.