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Abstract
The impact of assimilating radar radial velocity and reflectivity on the analyses and forecast of Hurricane IKE is investigated within the framework of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system, including the hydrometeor control variables. Hurricane IKE in the year 2008 was chosen as the study case. It was found that assimilating radar data is able to effectively improve the small-scale information of the hurricane vortex area in the model background. Radar data assimilation experiments yield significant cyclonic wind increments in the inner-core area of the hurricane, enhancing the intensity of the hurricane in the model background. On the other hand, by extending the traditional control variables to include the hydrometeor control variables, the assimilation of radar reflectivity can effectively adjust the water vapor and hydrometeors of the background, further improving the track and intensity forecast of the hurricane. The precipitation forecast skill is also enhanced to some extent with the radar data assimilation, especially with the extended hydrometeor control variables.
Highlights
Tropical cyclones (TC) have become one of the most important natural disasters in the world because of their great destructive power
Several studies have focused on TC initialization based on radar data assimilation, among which most researches mainly focused on radar radial velocity observations [7,8,9,10,11]
This study will discuss the impact of assimilation of radar reflectivity on the analysis and prediction of Hurricane IKE (2008) by using control variables from hydrometeors based on the WRF model and its assimilation system
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TC) have become one of the most important natural disasters in the world because of their great destructive power. Gao et al [5] (2012) used the background temperature field of the NWP model to divide the hydrometeors, introduced the ice phase hydrometeors, and improved the analysis and prediction of storms; Wang et al [6] (2013) used an indirect radar reflectivity assimilation scheme to improve the prediction of local precipitation by introducing a new observation operator based on the z-qr (reflectivity-rain) equation to avoid the linearization error of the observation operator. Several studies have focused on TC initialization based on radar data assimilation, among which most researches mainly focused on radar radial velocity observations [7,8,9,10,11]. This study will discuss the impact of assimilation of radar reflectivity on the analysis and prediction of Hurricane IKE (2008) by using control variables from hydrometeors based on the WRF model and its assimilation system
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