Application of User-Oriented MOE to Transport and Dispersion Model Predictions of the European Tracer Experiment

Abstract

Abstract : In October 1994, the tracer gas perfluoro-methyl-cyclohexane (PMCH) was released over a 12-hour period from a location in northwestern France and tracked at 168 sampling locations in 17 countries across Europe (100s of kilometers). This release, known as the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX), resulted in the collection of a wealth of data. IDA has obtained the predictions of 46 transport and dispersion models from 17 countries from the Joint Research Centre, European Commission as well as the PMCH sampling data. This paper describes the extension of the previously described user-oriented measure of effectiveness (MOE) methodology to evaluate the predictions of the 46 models against the long-range ETEX observations. This paper develops the methodological protocols to compare model predictions of ETEX using the MOE and to score and rank model performance by a variety of notional user criteria. The development of these notional user criteria is also described in this paper. In addition, the sensitivity of MOE estimates to any single sampler location is examined and the use of the MOE to explore the time-dependence of model performance is also described.