Abstract
Uncertainties in power system studies are typically managed by Monte Carlo methods or by applying some worst case assumptions. As the number ofuncertainties increases, there is a need for methods that can estimate statistical parameters from a limited number of calculations. This paper utilizes a method called the Unscented Transform together with Cornish-Fisher expansion to estimate the 2%-value of switching overvoltages using only about one tenth the number of calculations as a Monte Carlo method, with similar accuracy. The uncertainties considered are the energizing instants of the three phases. The method is illustrated through EMT simulations in PSCAD and it is shown to provide a good approximation of the 2%-value in most of the studied cases.
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