Application of the protective action decision model in land-use scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction

Abstract

Land-Change Science is an emergent field that seeks to enhance understanding of the negative impacts of land use and cover change (LUCC) in order to expedite the development of sustainable resource management and sustainable land use policies. Dr Kikuko Shoyama is a research fellow at the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, Japan, who is conducting research on Land-Use Functions. In her latest project, she is focusing on ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) and she and the team will explore how to utilise Eco-DRR as one of the Land-Use Functions and look at the type of payment system that is needed to support community activities. This work on designing so-called payment for ecosystem services (PES) involves recognising and valuing the variety of services that ecosystems provide to society. Through PES, an awareness and appreciation of the value of ecosystems can be cultivated. In her work on Eco-DRR, Shoyama is investigating the effects of land use policies on disaster reduction, with a focus on flood risk information and the impact of policies that promote or inhibit protective behaviour related to land use. The work involves the use of a hierarchical linear model that extracts the factors affecting protective behaviours by taking into account land ownership and community characteristics. The factors can then be introduced into a land use model and analyses are performed. Ultimately, Shoyama hopes her work will lead to recommendations that will inform a newer land use strategy and social transformative change.