Abstract
Problem statement. One of the most important tasks in optimizing the operation modes of urban gas distribution systems is to develop a short-term strategy for such modes. Processing of planned and statistical indicators of gas consumption modes is one of the key methods for ensuring the optimal functioning and normal operation of gas supply systems. The most promising modeling method for solving forecasting problems is the method of self-organization of models implemented as the method of group arguments accounting (MGАA). Short-term forecasting of gas consumption is the main source of information for decision-making in the process of planning consumption regimes and operational dispatch control. The MGАA method, also known as the Ivakhnenko method, is a powerful tool for obtaining highly accurate forecasting models and is gaining importance for forecasting in energy resource management and planning their use. The solution to such a problem is relevant, as it makes it possible to analyze the volume of natural gas consumption by the population for the future period. The purpose of the article is to build mathematical models for forecasting gas consumption using the method of group arguments accounting based on input data. Conclusion. To select the best models the following parameters are recommended: tomorrow's gas consumption as a function (main criterion) and arguments (additional criterion) - gas consumption to date, air temperature to date, yesterday's temperature and temperatures for the past 3, 5, 7 days, wind speed and day of the week. The resulting mathematical models of natural gas consumption by the population can be used to analyze the volume of natural gas consumption. The method allows us to find a single optimal mathematical model that best solves the problem.
Published Version
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