Application of the Markov chain approximation to the sunspot observations

Abstract

The positions of the 13588 sunspot groups observed during the cycle of 1950–1960 at the Istanbul University Observatory have been corrected for the effect of differential rotation. The evolution probability of a sunspot group to the other one in the same region have been determined. By using the Markov chain approximation, the types of these groups and their transition probabilities during the following activity cycle (1950–1960), and the concentration of active regions during 1950–1960 have been estimated. The transition probabilities from the observations of activity cycle 1960–1970 have been compared with the predicted transition probabilities and a good correlation has been noted.