Application Of The Hybrid Method Nonlinear Regression With Modified Logistic Growth Model - Exponential Double Smoothing For Forecasting Covid-19 Cases In Indonesia And Armenia

Andy Rezky Pratama Syam Arez

doi:10.20956/jmsk.v17i2.11747

Abstract

Since the first cases of Covid-19 (Corona Virus Disease-19) infection were officially recognized and recorded in Indonesia on March 2, 2020 and March 1, 2020 in Armenia, the addition of new cases has not shown any indication of sloping. The relatively high number of new cases indicates that Indonesia has not yet passed the peak of the pandemic. As for Armenia, the addition of new cases indicates a new pandemic peak to be faced. In these conditions, an important question for decision makers (the Government) to find answers to is when and at what level of total cases will the COVID-19 pandemic end in Indonesia or the second wave in Armenia. Based on this, the forecasting method of Hybrid Nonlinear Regression With Modified Logistic Growth Model - Double Smoothing Exponential and Classical methods is used to predict the Covid-19 cases that occur in Indonesia and Armenia. Based on the model formed, the peak of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia is predicted to occur on November 26, 2020, with the number of cases reaching 5968 cases. As for Armenia, the peak of Covid-19 cases will occur on November 15, 2020, with the number of cases reaching 3098 cases. Covid-19 in both countries is predicted to decline and be constant in 2021. For the country, Indonesia is predicted to begin to stabilize and be controlled in July - August 2021. As for Armenia, Covid-19 is predicted to be under control and approaching 0 cases in February - March 2021.

Highlights

Since the first cases of Covid-19 (Corona Virus Disease-19) infection were officially recognized and recorded in Indonesia on March 2, 2020 and March 1, 2020 in Armenia, the addition of new cases has not shown any indication of sloping
Berdasarkan data dari Website Worldometers.com per 31 Oktober 2020, total kasus positif Covid-19 di Indonesia mencapai 410.088 orang
Sedangkan untuk prediksi kapan covid-19 berakhir di kedua negara, dapat pula dilihat dari time seris plot yang dihasilkan metode Hybrid

Summary

PENDAHULUAN

Akhir tahun 2019 menjadi titik awal dunia mengalami pandemi Covid-19 (Corona Virus Disease-19). Pertanyaan yang penting untuk dicari tahu jawabannya oleh pengambil keputusan (Pemerintah) adalah kapan dan pada tingkat total kasus berapa pandemic COVID-19 akan berakhir baik di Indonesia ataupun gelombang kedua di Armenia. Kepastian akan akhir dari pandemi Covid-19 ini sangat penting untuk semua negara dalam rangka penyusunan kebijakan kebijakan baru dan cepat untuk memulihkan keadaan perekonomian setiap negara yang secara keseluruhan mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang negatif. Berdasarkan latar belakang tersebut, peneliti tertarik melakukan analisis terhadap data kumulatif dan data harian dari Covid-19 di Indonesia (Mewakili negara yang belum mencapai puncak pandemi) dan di Armenia (Mewakili negara yang menghadapi gelombang kedua pandemi). Tujuan analisis ini untuk memprediksi kapan akhir dari Pandemi Covid-19 dan menunjukkan kapan puncak kasus Covid-19 di kedua negara tersebut. Dengan penerapan metode tersebut diharapkan didapatkan suatu model yang dapat menjawab kapan terjadinya puncak kasus Covid-19 dan kapan pandemi Covid-19 berakhir di Indonesia dan Armenia. Untuk melihat keterbandingan kebaikan model yang akan terbentuk, akan dilakukan perbandingan nilai MAPE metode tersebut dibandingkan dengan metode Time Series Klasik yaitu Naïve Trend Linear dan Naïve Trend Exponential

METODOLOGI

HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN

Hasil Forecasting

KESIMPULAN