Abstract
Abstract Precise simulations of hydrological processes under the influence of climate change and human activities have special significance in arid basins. During the past 60 years, the annual average temperature and precipitation at the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains have increased at the rates of 0.035 °C/year and 0.881 mm/year, respectively. Rising temperatures will change the temporal and spatial distributions and forms of precipitation, accelerate glacier retreat, melt snow on high mountains, cause the degeneration of frozen soil, and change the runoff composition in the Tianshan area. In this work, the CMADS (China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Dataset for the SWAT model) was combined with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Jing River and Bo River Basins in the Tianshan area. The results were as follows. (1) On the monthly scale, the average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients of the calibration period in the Wenquan and Jinghe–Shankou hydrological stations were 0.79 and 0.87, respectively, and the NSE coefficients of validation period were 0.71 and 0.82, respectively. On the daily scale, the NSE coefficients of the two hydrological stations were between 0.69 and 0.77. The simulation results were considered to be ideal on the monthly and daily scales. (2) Under different climate scenarios and land-use patterns, the cultivated land in the basin leads to the reduction of runoff, and the grassland and woodland stabilise the river flood season. Lakes and wetlands, which can reduce the flow in the flood season and provide water for rivers in the dry season, are very important for runoff regulation. Compared with the traditional meteorological stations, CMADS demonstrates good representativeness and reliability in the Jinghe River and Bohe River Basins under different climate and land-use scenarios, greatly improving the runoff simulation ability.
Highlights
According to the fifth assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2014, during the period 1880–2012, the global average surface temperature increased by 0.85 C (0.65–1.06 C) (Change ), the snow decreased by 10%, and the freezing season of rivers and lakes was reduced by 2 weeks (Minville et al )
CMADS significantly improved the accuracy of the runoff simulation, and the rates determined for the Jinghe hydrological station are satisfactory
The SWAT model was driven by data from CMADS, and the representativeness and feasibility of these data to different climate and land-use change scenarios in the Jing River and Bo River Basins were analysed
Summary
According to the fifth assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2014, during the period 1880–2012, the global average surface temperature increased by 0.85 C (0.65–1.06 C) (Change ), the snow decreased by 10%, and the freezing season of rivers and lakes was reduced by 2 weeks (Minville et al ). (2) Under different climate scenarios and land-use patterns, the cultivated land in the basin leads to the reduction of runoff, and the grassland and woodland stabilise the river flood season. Compared with the traditional meteorological stations, CMADS demonstrates good representativeness and reliability in the Jinghe River and Bohe River Basins under different climate and land-use scenarios, greatly improving the runoff simulation ability.
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