Application of subset simulation in reliability estimation of underground pipelines

Abstract

This paper presents a computational framework for implementing an advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for time-dependent reliability prediction of underground flexible pipelines. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. Random samples of statistical variables are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic reliability model. It gains its efficiency by expressing a small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment and compared with direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Reliability of a buried flexible steel pipe with time-dependent failure modes, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress has been assessed in this study. The analysis indicates that corrosion induced excessive deflection is the most critical failure event whereas buckling is the least susceptible during the whole service life of the pipe. The study also shows that SS is robust method to estimate the reliability of buried pipelines and it is more efficient than MCS, especially in small failure probability prediction.