Application of Statistical Prediction Model to the Reservoir Induced Seismic Risk Analysis of Aqing Hydropower Station in Xizang

Abstract

Based on field seismic geological survey and previous research results, this paper analyzed tectonic background, seismicity and hydrogeological conditions of Aqing hydropower station in Xizang respectively, then calculated the probability of reservoir induced seismicity. The results showed that it is possible for the reservoir induced seismicity occurring, whose probability is 0.455. In detail, the probabilities of occurring moderate-strong, weak, and micro earthquake are 0.089, 0.070, and 0.296 respectively. Under these circumstances and based on the intensity attenuation relationship of reservoir induced seismicity, it can be deduced that the moderate-strong earthquake would occur with epicentral intensity VII, and the lengths of major axis and minor axis are 6.5 km and 3.3 km respectively.