Abstract
BackgroundThe purpose of this study, mosquito forecast system implemented by Seoul Metropolitan city, was to obtain the mosquito prediction formula by using the mosquito population data and the environmental data of the past.ResultsFor this study, the mosquito population data from April 1, 2015, to October 31, 2017, were collected. The mosquito population data were collected from the 50 smart mosquito traps (DMSs), two of which were installed in each district (Korean, gu) in Seoul Metropolitan city since 2015. Environmental factors were collected from the Automatic Weather System (AWS) by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The data of the nearest AWS devices from each DMS were used for the prediction formula analysis. We found out that the environmental factors affecting the mosquito population in Seoul Metropolitan city were the mean temperature and rainfall. We predicted the following equations by the generalized linear model analysis: ln(Mosquito population) = 2.519 + 0.08 × mean temperature + 0.001 × rainfall.ConclusionsWe expect that the mosquito forecast system would be used for predicting the mosquito population and to prevent the spread of disease through mosquitoes.
Highlights
The purpose of this study, mosquito forecast system implemented by Seoul Metropolitan city, was to obtain the mosquito prediction formula by using the mosquito population data and the environmental data of the past
Study sites All of the study sites were in Seoul Metropolitan city, where it is the capital of South Korea (Fig. 1a)
Seoul Metropolitan city has an area of 605.25 km2 and consists of 25 districts (Korean, gu)
Summary
The purpose of this study, mosquito forecast system implemented by Seoul Metropolitan city, was to obtain the mosquito prediction formula by using the mosquito population data and the environmental data of the past. Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have overexploited the fossil fuels and it caused the global warming (IPCC 2014). These climate changes are known to affect the composition of the atmosphere and climate variability. The rapid increase of mean temperature in Korea due to global warming may bring unexpected changes and natural disturbances in the biological systems inhabiting Korea. The infectious disease vector is affected by environmental factors, such as temperatures and precipitation. The temperature of Korea has steadily climbed at 2.4 °C for 100 years, and the distribution area and the Mosquito is well known as one of the deadliest disease vectors in the world. Mosquitoes have been classified 3500 species worldwide, and 56 species have been recorded in Korea (Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2014; Fang 2010)
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