Abstract
Maritime transport is of great importance as it is the basis of international trade. Shipping is a global industry and highly complex business. Further safety development at sea is determined by the growth of maritime traffic intensity. Therefore, new ideas and technologies are needed to optimize the sea transport system. In the paper, the cellular automaton model is suggested to describe traffic flow at grade roundabout and simple crossing. Not only the cell state but also neighborhood as well is defined for presented cellular automaton. The model, describing vessels motion, takes into account vessel’s type, speed and length, vessel’s behavior and maneuverability, lane status, and flow density. It provides the basis for simulation. Two types of traffic schemes, namely, roundabout and simple routes crossing, are considered. Some results of simulation, including ships safety prediction, illustrate possible applications for evaluation of maritime traffic organization. Final conclusion and remarks outline further work development.
Highlights
Every human activity is associated with the risk of leading to the possibility of a loss
Presented program is not devoted to ship collision avoidance route planning, but it focuses on counting probability of ships collision in given situation
The simulation program is capable of Probability of high risk of collision
Summary
Every human activity is associated with the risk of leading to the possibility of a loss. Due to the phenomenon of risk aversion, we try to optimize risk. This requires the measurement of risk, that is, used risk measure. Selection of risk measures is an important issue because the wrong measure or model can lead to overestimation or underestimation of the actual risk. The model enables the universalization of the different processes and examining any large set of objects. Decision making is the process of recognizing a problem and finding a solution to it. Many of these decisions are relatively simple, but there are some decisions where neither the appropriate solution nor the potential outcome is known [1, 2]
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