Abstract
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a rational approach for deriving the design basis ground motion parameters and also a key step for seismic probabilistic risk analysis (SPRA). This paper elaborates the application of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) technique, following Cornell–McGuire method, to develop uniform hazard spectra (UHS) in low seismic region. The application is described through a case study of deriving UHS at free field condition of an NPP site in peninsular India. Peninsular India is a low seismic zone and poses challenges like scarcity of data on seismicity, lack of information on seismotectonic characteristics, non-availability of regional specific attenuation relationships in application of this method. The effect of uncertainties associated with input parameters arising out of these were taken into account by rational maximization of hazard. This is achieved with the help of sensitivity study. De-aggregation of hazard is carried out to examine the relative contribution of some major parameters like source-distance from site, earthquake magnitude. Based on the outcome of sensitivity analysis and de-aggregation, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in depiction of various parameters are incorporated in derivation of UHS using logic tree. The branches of logic tree are derived by postulating alternate hypotheses for some parameters and introducing additional variance in case of other parameters.
Published Version
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