Application of Probabilistic Methods to Engineering Estimates of Speed, Power, Weight, and Cost

Abstract

The development and growth in the application of probabilistic methods are traced up to the present time and it is concluded that such methods are now widely accepted. The maritime engineering community currently employs probabilistic methods in a few instances, but the opportunity for wider applications seems to be great. Especially promising candidates are those activities that are currently regarded as estimates, such as weight estimates, cost estimates, and speed and power estimates. Example applications to each of these three estimating problems are presented, illustrating both the methods and the advantages of adopting the probabilistic perspective. Including measures of the dispersion in certainty in the estimating process is shown to be simple and useful. It is concluded that the maritime engineering community should give serious consideration to greater use of probabilistic methods.