Application of probabilistic analysis and design methods in space programs

Abstract

The use of probabilistic analysis and design methods in space programs is steadily gaining acceptance within the aerospace community. To further enhance the development and application of probabilistic methods, four actions are recommended: 1) the development of theories, codes, and tools to match the task areas; 2) an understanding of prior applications/uses of probability and statistics, and databases; 3) the development of databases, in particular structural failures; and 4) education of engineers and managers on the merits and basics of probability/reliability methods. The approaches, the status, and the needs for these actions are examined in terms of the current limitations of probabilistic engineering methods, a basic approach for its application, a discussion of some specific uses, and recommendations of critical development areas.