Implementing Probabilistic Design Methods in Plant Systems Design

Abstract

Abstract An American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) standard for design of facilities with potential for significant hazards to the health and safety of the public, the worker, and the environment is being developed. The standard includes requirements and guidance for design organizations to incorporate risk informed probabilistic design methodologies with traditional deterministic design methods using reliability and availability targets. Probabilistic design processes include selecting the systems and products to be evaluated, defining the failure modes, establishing system life cycle models, defining the acceptance criteria, selecting the appropriate probabilistic design method, processing the analysis results, and, where applicable, recommending design changes. The order of these activities as well as the inputs and outputs from each step are defined. Probabilistic design methods are addressed at both the system and product level and their interaction. A toolbox of probabilistic design methods is included as an appendix to the standard. A description of the current plans for each activity, the order of activities, and the input and outputs from each activity are described along with the interaction to the other activities in the plant system design process. The basic content and organization of the toolbox is described. This paper provides an overview of the probabilistic analysis section rather than a detailed description of the draft document or examples.