Abstract
A progressive method of condition -based maintenance of production processes is considered. It is shown that an effective means for its implementation is the use of predictive control. Proposals have been formulated for the use of a reliability-cost criterion that characterizes the effectiveness of maintenance with predictive performance, quantitative relationships have been derived that make it possible to evaluate the reduction in the number of gradual failures when using maintenance with predictive control, as well as establishing the relationship between the effectiveness of maintenance and the reliability of forecasting. Using the concept of unused resource, the minimum reliability of predictive control is determined. Relationships have been obtained and practical recommendations have been formulated related to the selection of production process parameters for forecasting, which are based on the principle of their comparison based on the steepness of change over the observation interval, the root-mean-square error of prediction and the cost of costs for measures to monitor and prevent failures.
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