Application of NSGA-II and Improved Risk Decision Method for Integrated Water Resources Management of Malian River Basin

Gao Gao,Zhang Zhang,Yang Yang,Li Li,Tian Tian

doi:10.3390/w11081650

Abstract

The Malian River Basin is the Longdong grain elevator and a new oil and energy base of East Gansu Province. Limited water resources programming utilization is a key for the development of the socio-economic and energy industry, as well as the improvement of the ecological environment. An analytical framework for assessing socioeconomic development, rational allocation of water resources, and guiding policy development is proposed in this study. A decision tree method was used in the risk analysis and was improved by introducing the expert advisory probabilistic method into the sensitivity analysis to reduce cognitive bias. A large-system multi-objective model was developed to solve the problem of the rational allocation of available water resources and for benefit maximization among water users. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-Ⅱ (NSGA-II) method was used to generate a solution. The water supply amount within the basin was 8.69 × 108 m3 and the water shortage rate was 15.90%. The optimization model method had better distribution results than the weights method without new water supply. Through the model method results, the water saving potential was found and the related policies were proposed. The framework and methods can further provide a reference for both the planning of water resources and the formulation of regulatory policies and will greatly alleviate water crises in semi-arid areas.

Highlights

Located in a semi-arid region, the Malian River Basin (Figure 1), situated at the Loess gully area at the upper Jin river of Yellow River, is a traditional agricultural region, called the Longdong grain elevator
Annul precipitation reaches up 450–500 mm, the average water resources in the Malian River Basin are only 449 million m3, based on the data for a number of years
According to the scores given by the experts for the 12 programs, the water supply and demand forecasts, and the balance analysis results, the expected water demand, the water supply, and the shortage rate were calculated by the weighted average method and adopted as the basic parameters of decision tree method

Summary

Introduction

Located in a semi-arid region, the Malian River Basin (Figure 1), situated at the Loess gully area at the upper Jin river of Yellow River, is a traditional agricultural region, called the Longdong grain elevator. It has great development potential because of its rich resources, such as oil, coal, and gas. The flood runoff in the two months, July and August, accounts for more than 50% of the annual runoff volume. The volume of runoff during the remaining ten months of the year accounts for only 40% of the annual runoff volume. There were many water resource problems in the basin, such as low total runoff volume, uneven

Methods

Results

Conclusion