Application of Multi-Index Decision Analysis to Management Scenarios Considering Climate Change Prediction in the Zayandeh Rud River Basin

Abstract

Considering the multidimensionality of water resources management policies and prioritization of water demands, engineering software have attracted researchers and planners. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) program (Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Model) is one of the specialized software that uses the Water Algorithm Equation and is used for water resources planning and management at the watershed level. In order to forecast future water resources, runoff for the years to come by 2100 was first simulated using WEAP along a new climate prediction model (CMIP5) and a rainfall-runoff model. Then, the amount of drinking water and industry needs and net irrigation requirement were calculated by 2100. Results showed that by applying the climate prediction model and considering the effect of human factors on water resources and applying adaptive correction scenarios for the years to come, allocation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rud area was used to predict the status of water resources for planning. Considering the WEAP model for optimal water allocation, it can be admitted that agricultural demand can be met with 60% confidence and drinking water and the industry requirements can be met with 83% confidence.