Abstract
The article presents the results of modeling in a dynamic format of one of the most important parameters of any research object – the efficiency of its work. As the object of investigation, a blast furnace with a volume of 2014 m3 was chosen. The main parameters of the efficiency of this object are traditionally used daily productivity and specific consumption of coke; these two parameters were generalized in this paper. In this case, various algebraic signs of the influence of these parameters were taken into account in the generalized efficiency index. Taking into account the variation of each of these parameters at 3 levels, the number of levels of the generalized efficiency index was determined as 32 = 9, therefore it was rational to take a 9-point scale with the measuring scale of profitability from the efficient operation of the blast furnace. The two-dimensional array of primary data of the volume N = 177 was transformed into a 9×9 transitional matrix for processing of random transitions of the efficiency index from one state to another by the Markov chain method with discrete states and time. The set of parameters of the random process is calculated: for the long-term forecast – the stationary vector of state probabilities, the average time of recurrence (reversal) for each efficiency state, the evaluation of the blast furnace efficiency in points; for a short-term forecast – the first time of transition from each state to any other state, the step number for a “burst” of probability for each reliable state at the initial moment of time, and the components of the efficiency index are obtained. It was established that the average level of the analyzed efficiency of the blast furnace (daily output 3702 tons and specific coke consumption 470 kg/ton) is achieved mainly due to short-term transitions of low-efficiency states to high-efficiency states and vice versa. The transfer of the system to more efficient and prolonged conditions is possible, and as practice has shown on the same blast furnace after repair works to eliminate the distortion of the furnace profile, the daily productivity has increased to 5048 tons with a specific coke consumption of 445 kg/t, but the structure of the transition matrix and the calculated indicators of the Markov chain have fundamentally changed in the direction of increasing the probabilities of stay and transitions of the system in more efficient states. The use of the Markov chain method with discrete states and time makes it possible to estimate the probable value of the change in the parameters of the operation of a blast furnace in a given time interval with constant levels of parameters characterizing the conditions of its operation.
Highlights
The main parameters of the efficiency of this object are traditionally used daily productivity and specific consumption of coke; these two parameters were generalized in this paper
Various algebraic signs of the influence of these parameters were taken into account in the generalized efficiency index
It was established that the average level of the analyzed efficiency of the blast furnace is achieved mainly due to short-term transitions of low-efficiency states to high-efficiency states and vice versa
Summary
Двумерный массив первичных данных объемом N = 177 преобразован в переходную матрицу размера 9×9 для обработки случайных переходов показателя эффективности из одних состояний в другие методом Марковской цепи с дискретными состояниями и временем. Установлено, что средний уровень анализируемой эффективности доменной печи (суточная производительность П = 3702 т и удельный расход кокса Kуд = 470 кг/т чугуна) достигается в основном за счет кратковременных переходов состояний с низкой эффективностью в состояния с высокой эффективностью и наоборот. Фактор времени очень важно учитывать для прогнозирования показателей эффективности работы доменной печи при переходах из одних состояний в другие. Следовательно, для учета эффективности работы доменной печи целесообразно использовать балльную систему относительно средних значений и по выпуску объема чугуна, и по удельному расходу кокса. Удобной для оценки эффективности работы печи оказалась девятибалльная шкала доходности от производства чугуна по аналогии с числом состояний, в котором прибывает доменная печь, переходя случайным образом из одних состояний в другие. Балльная шкала доходности от эффективности работы доменной печи приведена в табл. 2 (последний столбец)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
More From: Izvestiya Visshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii. Chernaya Metallurgiya = Izvestiya. Ferrous Metallurgy
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.