Application of Markov Chains to Identification of Turbine Engine Dynamic Models

Abstract

The paper addresses the problem of dynamic modelling of gas turbines for condition monitoring purposes. Identification of dynamic models is performed using a novel Markov chain technique. This includes identifiability analysis and model estimation. When identifying the model, experimental data should be sufficiently informative for identification. So far, identifiability analysis is weak formed and workable solutions are still to be developed. A possible technique is proposed based on non-parametric models in the form of controllable Markov chains. The second step in systems identification is the model estimation. At this stage, Markov chains are introduced to provide more functionality and versatility for dynamic modelling of gas turbines. The Markov chain model combines the deterministic and stochastic components of the engine dynamics within a single model, thus providing more exact and adequate description of the real system behaviour and leading to far more accurate health monitoring.