Application of Markov Chain to Determine the Electric Energy Supply System Reliability for the Cargo Control System of LNG Carriers

Abstract

The natural gas industry, as well as other industrial activities, is not free from accidents, which can cause serious consequences to the integrity of people and properties. For this reason, it is necessary to develop studies to determine what are the possible causes of LNG leakage during the loading or unloading operation. This paper aims to determine the reliability of the Cargo control system electric power supply system applying Markov Chain technique. This reliability modeling tool is used because the system consists of several components in passive parallel. Based on the reliability analysis maintenance recommendations are proposed aiming at reducing system failure probability. The method used in this paper is divided in three steps. The first step consists in carrying out a study to identify what are the components that are part of electric power supply system. The second step involves the reliability analysis of the electric energy supply system. Finally some maintenance recommendations are presented aiming at reducing system failure rate. This analysis is used for the analysis of a LNG carrier operating in a Brazilian harbor indicating the most probability failure modes of this system and the most suitable maintenance actions to avoid them.