Reliability methods for delivery of primary energy resources at a power plant during a reliability audit of electric energy systems

Abstract

Various approaches (nodal, system and estimation) to assessing the reliability of electric power systems, including the effectiveness of fuel supply, are compared and evaluated. A method of statistical testing (Monte Carlo method) is used to assess the reliability of electric power and gas supply systems. For calculating power shortages in electric power systems, the internal points method was used; in order to calculate minimum costs in gas supply systems, the Basaker-Gowan method was used. To calculate the reliability indicators of these systems, probability theory methods were employed, including calculation of probability distribution series, addition and multiplication theorems. Independent tests based on the Bernoulli formula, addition and multiplication theorems, as well as the composition method of distribution series, were used to calculate the distribution series of random states for fuel and electricity supply systems when examining the proposed approaches (nodal, system and estimation approaches). All approaches (nodal, system and estimation) to assessing the reliability of electric power systems, including reliable fuel supply to electric power plants, were evaluated using the following examples: "nodal" and "system" using nominal examples of fuel-supply and electric power systems, as well as "evaluation" using the computational schemes of gas supply and power systems of the North-West Federal District. It is recommended to apply approaches depending on the technological characteristics of the given systems and their connection structure for calculating the base-load provision reliability of energy systems, as well as their feasibility regarding the accuracy of the obtained results, time consumption and the complexity of the data search, preparation and presentation in the model.