Abstract
In this paper, the reliability analysis and residual life assessment model of gas pipelines with multiple corrosion pits are established. Aiming at the simulation evaluation of small failure probability of gas pipelines, a new method for reliability analysis and residual life assessment of gas pipelines with multiple internal corrosion pits is proposed, which is called the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo subset simulation (HMC-SS) method. Compared with the traditional MCS (Monte Carlo simulation) algorithm, the HMC-SS method has the advantages of less sampling, low cost, and high accuracy. And compared with the random walk SS method, the HMC-SS method can analyze the state space more efficiently and achieve faster convergence. In this paper, the HMC-SS method is applied to the reliability analysis and residual life assessment of gas pipeline engineering, and the sensitivity analysis of the random parameters affecting the failure probability of the pipeline is carried out. The results show that the corrosion rate, the depth of corrosion defects, and the wall thickness of the pipeline have great influence on the residual life of the pipeline, while the yield strength, working pressure, and the length of corrosion pits have no obvious influence on the failure probability and residual life of the pipeline. The analysis shows that the proposed HMC-SS method can be used as a reasonable tool for failure assessment of natural gas pipelines affected by corrosion to determine the remaining life of the pipeline system. This method provides a reliable theoretical basis for the integrity management of the gas pipeline.
Highlights
Pipeline transportation is an important part of gas production process
Corrosion will cause the pipeline wall thickness reduction, perforation, leakage, strength reduction, and cracking; serious cases will cause pipeline leakage or explosion, will cause serious casualties and major economic losses and pollute the environment and cause bad social impacts. erefore, once the oil and gas pipeline is put into operation for a period of time, the reliability analysis and remaining service life assessment of the pipeline are very important
Teixeira et al [5] used the firstorder reliability method (FORM) and MCS simulation method to analyze the failure probability of the pipeline affected by internal pressure corrosion; Carr [6] points out that the failure probability obtained by MCS is more accurate and applicable than that obtained by FOSM because MCS is independent of the dimension of random variables and the complexity of limit state function; Li et al [7] use MCS to evaluate the probability of pipeline instability
Summary
Pipeline transportation is an important part of gas production process. With the increasing service time of existing pipelines, the gas pipeline will inevitably be affected by an internal transport medium, external soil medium, and stray current in the long-term operation process, which will cause pipeline corrosion [1]. E MCS method is widely used in the failure probability analysis of structures and residual life assessment due to its robustness and unbiased calculation results [9]. E results show that this method is a good choice to solve the fatigue problems of nonlinear and multidimensional LSF [20] This method has many advantages and is widely used, MCMC sampling method based on random walking makes Markov chain converge to the fixed distribution function p (x), and the resulting conditional samples have high autocorrelation, so the accuracy of simulation results is poor and the efficiency is still very low [21].
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