Application of forecasting strategies and techniques to natural gas consumption: A comprehensive review and comparative study

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of natural gas consumption (NGC) plays an important role in energy supply, energy trading, economic effects and environmental sustainability. NGC forecasts can be used to adjust production and supply plans to improve gas efficiency and reduce carbon emissions and supply chain waste. This paper reviews the research progress on NGC in the past decade, analyzes the typical characteristics of different forecasting strategies, and highlights 163 studies in terms of the technical aspects of feature processing methods, data decomposition methods, forecasting models and optimization algorithms. It also systematically elaborates the application of statistical models, machine learning models, grey models, logistic regression and their combinations in predictive models. Bibliometric methods are also utilized to dissect research hotspots and summarize cutting-edge trends in the field. It is worth mentioning that in the terms of hybrid model structures, the application and performance of various model structures are described and evaluated. In this paper, the future development is discussed from spatiotemporal characteristics, studying reasonable data decomposition layers and fusion models, considering potential data privacy issues, and developing artificial intelligence-supporting models and interpretable frameworks. This paper is expected to provide a multi-technology reference for natural gas forecasting and help researchers to select and develop more accurate forecasting techniques and strategies.