APPLICATION OF FORECASTING METHODS AND MODELS WITHIN THE ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR AND IN THE ADVERTISING AND RETAILING STRATEGY FORMATION

Abstract

Objective. The objective of the article is to investigate the methodological basis of application of forecasting models and methods in the analysis of consumer behaviour and in the formation of advertising and retail strategy, in particular, to assess the possibilities of forecasting consumer behaviour (its quantitative characteristics) and determine the application of forecasts in marketing: sales policy of the enterprise. Methods. The theoretical basis of the study is the achievements of foreign and domestic scientists. To achieve this goal, the following research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, abstract-logical and comparative - to generalize the directions of application of predictive models and methods in assessing consumer behaviour; regression analysis - to build predictive models, obtain future values ​​of indicators that characterize the expected areas of household spending and quantitative parameters for assessing consumer behaviour. Results. The study considers the need to analyze consumer behaviour and its forecasting as a basic component that precedes the development of a successful advertising and retail strategy. The study finds out that the use of predictive regression models can quantify the future behaviour of consumers, determine their benefits and expected sales, which is an important prerequisite for developing a successful advertising strategy and increase the efficiency of sales. The generalization of directions of application of forecasting models and methods at an estimation of behaviour of consumers is performed. The calculated average expected levels of changes in the structure of total household expenditures and the correlation analysis of these indicators allow to perform multifactor autoregressive indicators of the structure of total household expenditures, obtain forecast models, statistically assess their adequacy and, ultimately, formulate directions for using forecast data.