Abstract
(1) Background: Every day, human beings fall victim to accidents. We implement solutions aimed at reducing accidents in everyday life, but we are not able to eliminate all accidents from our life. This article addresses the issue of forecasting accidents at work in the steel industry in Poland. Particular attention is paid to other accidents, given that those events are most often recorded in the sector under analysis. (2) Methods: The process of predicting quantitative data on the number of persons injured in other accidents in 2009–2018 employed Holt’s models: with an additive and multiplicative trend, with the trend smoothing effect in the multiplicative and additive formula. (3) Results: The forecasts prepared on the basis of Holt’s models and the combined model show a decreasing trend in the number of persons injured in other accidents in the steel sector, which is a positive development in the area of occupational safety and health. (4) Conclusions: The number of persons injured in other accidents at work in the steel sector shows a downward trend, which is significant and valid information for managers. The analysis of the results indicated that the combined forecast model best reflects the accidents at work in the steel industry.
Highlights
Ensuring safety in the workplace is one of the basic duties of the organizers of the work process—employers
(3) Results: The forecasts prepared on the basis of Holt’s models and the combined model show a decreasing trend in the number of persons injured in other accidents in the steel sector, which is a positive development in the area of occupational safety and health
The mean error ψ was in a range between 5.8% for model (M5) and 6.3% for model (M1); the adjusted average relative ex post error Θ was in a range between 1.4% for model (M5) and 1.5% for the other Holt’s models (M1–M4); Root Mean Square Error root mean square error (RMSE) values of expost forecast errors were in a range between
Summary
Ensuring safety in the workplace is one of the basic duties of the organizers of the work process—employers. Employers should limit and eliminate all occupational hazards and nuisances related to the performed work that cause accidents at work and occupational diseases. The occurrence of accidental events in enterprises generates social and economic costs [1,2] to be borne by all entities, including those that cooperate with the enterprise. Anyone who performs work may potentially sustain a work-related injury [3]. It seems appropriate to clarify at the outset what events are classified as accidents at work.
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