Abstract
The paper considers the impact of flow methods on long-term development of oil extracting industry, the impactbeing associated with mineral resources production tax variation. Six oil production scenarios for Russia havebeen considered, comparative analysis of these scenarios is presented. By the end of the calculation period, thescenario that provides for 5% decrease of tax burden closely approximates the scenario of oil production undereffective taxation system In terms of budget receipts volumes. The scenario with mineral resources productiontax rate increase is the worst in terms of oil industry growth leading to the industry collapse. According to thisscenario, an operating company’s tax burden increases to 78%. So far, the world practice has not witnessedeconomic growth under conditions of taxes as high as this; furthermore, taxation history testifies that too hightaxes have not been paid. In terms of oil industry growth, the scenario that provides for 5% decrease of taxburden is the most credible and promising, provided the released flows are invested in production. The samelevel of tax burden decrease (5%) is required to attain oil production levels in Russia in 2018-2020s according tothe 2030 Development Strategy.
Highlights
Steady growth of population is associated with increase of natural resources consumption
By the end of the calculation period, the scenario that provides for 5% decrease of tax burden closely approximates the scenario of oil production under effective taxation system In terms of budget receipts volumes
The scenario with mineral resources production tax rate increase is the worst in terms of oil industry growth leading to the industry collapse
Summary
Steady growth of population is associated with increase of natural resources consumption. For the last 50 years, the world population has grown more than three-fold, from 2 to 7 billion people. It is estimated that population growth will continue to become 9 billion by 2050. Some analysts hold that the Earth’s resources will not suffice to provide more than 8 billion people. The most powerful driving forces of energy demand are population growth and increased revenue. According to British Petroleum "World Energy Outlook 2030", starting with the twentieth century, the world population has increased more than 4 times, the real income - 25 times, and the primary energy consumption - 22.5 times. According to British Petroleum "World Energy Outlook 2030", starting with the twentieth century, the world population has increased more than 4 times, the real income - 25 times, and the primary energy consumption - 22.5 times. (BP Statistical Review of World Energy. - URL: http://bp.com/statisticalreview)
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