Abstract
Due to both anthropogenic and climate change impacts, precipitation and runoff in the Yellow River basin have decreased in the past 50 years, leading to more pressure in sustaining human beings and ecosystem needs. It is essential to evaluate the flow condition in the Yellow River basin and see whether it may satisfy its ecological flow in the future. Therefore, this study applied an entropy-based method to calculate the flow duration curves from both observed and simulated data to evaluate the impact of climate change on ecological flow in the Yellow River basin. The simulated FDCs from H08 and DBH models show good agreement with each other and fit observation well. Results show that the decadal FDC at each station is generally predicted to be higher or stay in the higher range under both RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, suggesting an increase in water amount in the future. It is found that the high flows increase much faster than the low flows, resulting in larger slopes than the references ones, which is due to the larger entropy and M values in the future. At most of the stations, the future values of Q95 and Q90 will safely exceed the threshold. It is found that at the Lanzhou, Wubao, Longmen, and Huayuankou stations, there will be no or little threat to future ecological flow. Still, at the Toudaoguai and Sanmanxia stations, the ecological requirement is not always satisfied. The water stress at the Tangnaihai station from the upper stream of the Yellow River may be threatened in the future.
Highlights
The Yellow River, the second-largest river in China, is the cradle of Chinese civilization and plays an essential role in regional development
There is a minimum requirement of the flow rate to sustain living habits, which is often called the ecological flow or the environmental flow [10,11]
It is necessary to carry out ecological flow assessment and the amount of water needed for ecosystem protection and resource protection [12]
Summary
The Yellow River, the second-largest river in China, is the cradle of Chinese civilization and plays an essential role in regional development. There were always competitions between human water needs and environmental flow due to the rapid economic growth over the basin [4]. There is a minimum requirement of the flow rate to sustain living habits, which is often called the ecological flow or the environmental flow [10,11]. It usually includes the number, frequency, time, and duration of flow events to sustain freshwater, estuarine, and nearshore ecosystems along with the dependent human livelihoods [12,13,14]. It is necessary to carry out ecological flow assessment and the amount of water needed for ecosystem protection and resource protection [12]
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