Application of Combination Forecast Model in Polymer Flooding Oil Production Prediction

Abstract

Results of polymer flooding oil production forecast will directly affect annual planning and long-term planning deployment in oil field development, so the choice of forecasting model is particularly important. On the basis of briefly introducing the optimal combination forecast model, the optimal combination forecast model is established based on the Weibull prediction, HCZ prediction and generalized Weng forecasting methods. The weight coefficient of the optimal combination forecast model is determined by the criterion of the minimum square sum of the forecasting error. It realizes that the production prediction model is optimal combination. The precision of the optimal combination forecast model is compared and analyzed with the other prediction models, such as Weibull prediction model, HCZ prediction model and generalized Weng model by using the real data. It proves that the optimal combination forecast model of polymer flooding is effective and practical.