Application of Business Crisis Forecasting Models in Bulgaria

Abstract

Every business organization faces a crisis at a certain point in its development. Crisis phenomena for overcoming preventive measures can lead to serious economic and social problems for the organization or its bankruptcy. The crisis is a widely held view and its indications affect different aspects of the financial, social, spirit life of the nation. It’s important to accent not only to the consequences of its manifestation but also to the opportunities for overcoming. This study focuses to analyze the specific models for assessing the dangers of crisis in Bulgarian enterprises. The report aims to systemize the methods and models for assessing the crisis in the enterprises from different sectors of the Bulgarian economy and to define the specific influential factors on them. A questionnaire was used to collect data from a sample of 312 entreprises which were selected through stratified random sampling method. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The study revealed that in the food industry is used Altman’s five-factor Z-score while in the enterprises from the financial sector, telecommunications and the IT sector the Springate model is used. Tourism businesses, those in the education sector, and chemical and health enterprises prefer to predict crises through Toffler’s model. The results show that crises are somewhat the driving force behind the creation of innovation and are a prerequisite for the emergence of modern forms of entrepreneurship so necessary to stabilize the economic system.