Application of Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty Analysis Method in Nuclear Safety Evaluation

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Abstract Most of the computer codes for nuclear power plants safety analysis were developed based on conservative methods, which would lead to unnecessary excessive margins and more difficulty for nuclear power plants design and improvement. Using best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis method may reduce or eliminate these unnecessary limits. The NRC had used the code as a basis for safety reviews of the AP series nuclear power plants, driving the development of the best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis methods (BEPU) in the independent audit calculation. It had become an international trend to use BEPU in accident analysis and safety review of nuclear power plants. At present, the calculation method of the best-estimate in the world is used to better understand the accident sequence in the water-cooled reactor, and uncertainty assessment is the necessary supplement to the best-estimate method. The research and application of BEPU method are becoming more and more extensive. Best-estimate method was combined with best-estimation program and the initial and boundary conditions. It accurately described the current safety margin. It was required to consider each impact analysis of the available information and data, including the best-estimate model, the uncertainty calculated in the transient state, the input and the uncertainty of input parameters. Compared with the conservative evaluation method, the BEPU analysis method defined the gap between the calculated result and the real value through the uncertainty analysis, and made a more reasonable evaluation of the safety margin. In the process of nuclear power plant safety review, National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) had adopted the best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis method to review the LOCA accident. In this paper, the four best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis methods are introduced, the source of uncertainty and uncertainty statistic methods are described. Then, the application of best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis method in nuclear safety evaluation are discussed.