Abstract
Incremental ecological service value is an important assessment indicator for ecosystem restoration projects, such as the interconnected river system network project in western Jilin Province, China. In this paper, a fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained stochastic programming (FTSCCP) model is proposed for the optimization of regional incremental ecological service value through adjustments to the original water diversions and ecological water supplement schemes for ecosystem restoration under different management requirements and scenarios. The proposed method can effectively address uncertainties such as fuzzy parameters, probability distributions, and random variables in optimizing processes simultaneously. The results reveal that, under the requirement of meeting the original plan, a decrease in restoration scale would mainly appear under low-flow scenarios, and for the other scenarios, the original plan would be fully realized with an increase in flood utilization and a decrease in normal water supplementation. For the requirement of maximizing the incremental ecological service value, the adjustments would mainly be increases in water supplementation for reed wetlands and marsh wetlands and decreases in water surface area, including fish ponds and crab ponds. The ecological service values would be 11,256.79 million CNY (Chinese Yuan), 16,465.11 million CNY and 17,639.59 million CNY under low-, normal- and high-flow scenarios, respectively, with increases of 3.2%, 6.9% and 14.5% compared to the values based on the requirement of meeting the original plan. The results would be helpful for guiding regional ecosystem restoration and water resource management in the western Jilin Province.
Highlights
Ecosystems are an important part of the environment that directly influence the survival and development of animals and humans through providing necessary ecological services [1,2,3]
Water 2019, 11, 68 the ecological service value caused by interconnected river system network projects could improve the evaluation of wetland restoration projects and ecosystem restoration in general
This study considers different uncertainties in water diversion and supplementation for lakes and ponds in the western Jilin Province, such as the fuzzy uncertainties of the dynamic development of restoring lake and pond areas in long-run programming, the upper and lower bounds of different ecological function zones, and the stochastic uncertainty of rainfall and available flood resources in different scenarios, which would have a remarkable effect on water diversion and supplementation planning in western Jilin Province
Summary
Ecosystems are an important part of the environment that directly influence the survival and development of animals and humans through providing necessary ecological services [1,2,3]. The project seeks to create an interconnected river system network combining water diversion, storage, irrigation, drainage and supplementation for significant regional lakes, ponds and wetlands, providing ecological services (e.g., supply services, adjustment services, support services, and culture services) by restoring and improving the ecosystems [10] As a result, this project would generate certain ecological service values to the regional society, economy, and environment. To add to the previous studies, in this article, a fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained stochastic programming model integrating fuzzy programming, two-stage programming, and chance-constrained stochastic methods has been developed and applied to research on the optimization of regional incremental ecological service values in the western Jilin Province under different policy scenarios through optimal water resource allocation to different ecosystems and the efficient utilization of flood resources. The results provide valuable advice to the regional decision-making authority for the development of optimal schemes and adjustments to water diversions, water resource allocation, and ecosystem restoration from different perspectives
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